Which teams will make it to playoffs in Stage 2 of the Overwatch League?

It’s the last week of the Overwatch League’s second stage and that means that everyone has their eyes on Sunday’s playoffs. So, to figure out which teams are likely to make it into playoffs and which teams will be left out in the cold, here’s our full breakdown of the playoff picture for Stage Two.

The number one seed

Only one team in the league controls their own fate when it comes to finishing at the top of the table: NYXL. If New York wins both of their games this week, they’re guaranteed a spot in the Overwatch League Stage Two Finals. And, considering their opponents are the Dallas Fuel and the LA Valiant, it’s a more than achievable task for a team that only lost one match so far this stage.

Everyone else

Here’s where things start to get a little weird. Heading into the week, there are three teams with a record of 6-2, but are all three separated by their map differential. Those teams are, the London Spitfire (+14), the Los Angeles Gladiators (+12), and the Seoul Dynasty (+9).

If any one of these teams has a truly easy road forward it’s the Spitfire. Not only do they lead on map differential, which will be used to break ties, but their opponents this week are the Shanghai Dragons and the Dallas Fuel, who have a combined record of 2-14, making London pretty safe to pencil into the number two seed.

As for the other teams, things are a little more complicated. The Gladiators certainly have the tie breaker advantage with the higher map differential, but their opponents this week, the Philadelphia Fusion — themselves vying for a long-shot playoff bid — and the Boston Uprising, are by far the most difficult of any of the three teams with the 6-2 record. For Seoul, the road forward is a little easier, thanks to their matches against the Houston Outlaws and the Florida Mayhem, both teams that have slightly under-performed in Stage Two as a whole.

If both teams win both of their games, the most likely team to advance will be the Gladiators, but it will all come down to map differential, where three map wins are all that separate the teams.

What about the Fusion though?

Technically, the Philadelphia Fusion aren’t completely out of this picture. For one thing, they play the Gladiators, but the stakes in the game for the Fusion are a little higher than just playing spoiler. With a record of 5-3, just one game back from the pack of 6-2 teams, a little late stage magic could help the Fusion sneak into the third seed in playoffs. Sure, it’s a little tough to see a world in which all three of those, usually dominant, teams struggles in their last two games, but it’s worth mentioning that the Fusion are at least a part of the conversation.